Jon Meoli: Projections for the 2026 Orioles from FanGraphs shed light on a crucial insight.
This all started as an undertaking I had been planning to complete throughout the winter months. Once the forecasts from public projection systems were released, I was eager to evaluate whether the returning players for the Orioles—many of whom did not perform to their potential last season—were expected to contribute more positively to the 2026 season than the much-lauded acquisitions made during the offseason.
The results were largely in line with my predictions. It appears that the current roster of Orioles, with their potential to bounce back to form, could indeed deliver greater value to the team than the various moves orchestrated by the front office over the offseason.
However, two key surprises came to light during this analysis. First, the gap between the returning players and the new additions is narrower than anticipated, suggesting that further acquisitions—especially in the pitching rotation—could significantly alter this evaluation. Secondly, the projected recoveries of some of Baltimore's homegrown hitters are quite substantial.
When considering these factors collectively, it is evident that the team is positioned to improve compared to its performance in 2025. Even modest enhancements, whether through returning players' performance or new additions, will contribute to this upward trajectory. Nevertheless, for the Orioles to experience significant improvement, several factors need to align favorably.
Most of the anticipated growth is expected to occur among the hitters, as the returning pitchers are projected to maintain similar levels of performance, according to FanGraphs’ wins above replacement (fWAR) estimates derived from the depth chart-informed ZiPS projection system.
Among those hitters, Adley Rutschman stands out with the most notable projected increase, jumping from 1.2 fWAR last year to an impressive forecast of 4.3 fWAR for the upcoming season. Following closely are Jordan Westburg (projected to rise from 1.9 fWAR to 4.3) and Colton Cowser (expected to move from 0.6 fWAR to 2.6). Additionally, both Samuel Basallo and Tyler O’Neill are projected to achieve a remarkable increase of 1.7 fWAR, while team leader Gunnar Henderson is expected to improve from 4.8 to 5.8 fWAR, and Jackson Holliday from 1.2 to 2.2. Even Dylan Beavers is projected to see a meaningful increase from 0.9 fWAR.
In total, the twelve returning hitters—including the aforementioned players along with Jeremiah Jackson, Coby Mayo, Ryan Mountcastle, and Heston Kjerstad—are forecasted to contribute an additional 15.3 fWAR compared to the previous year. At first glance, this is incredibly promising. However, it’s also a somewhat simplistic assumption to make—believing that all these players who faced injuries last season will return to peak performance and potentially exceed it all at once feels almost naive.
These projections represent significant numbers. It doesn't take much imagination to envision players like Henderson, Rutschman, Cowser, and Westburg reaching these targets. In fact, aside from Westburg, all these projections fall below the players' career-best seasons. Essentially, believing they can meet these projections implies that you think they are still on an upward trajectory in their careers and that last season's issues stemmed solely from injuries.
Relying on these players returning to their best forms might seem unwise if not for the strategic moves made to mitigate this risk. The offseason began with the acquisition of Leody Taveras, a modest addition who provides valuable versatility in the outfield and is projected at 0.4 fWAR. Then, the team made bigger splashes with trade acquisition Taylor Ward, projected at 3 fWAR, and free-agent signing Pete Alonso, forecasted at 4.2 fWAR.
On the pitching side, where some expected positive regression from Kyle Bradish (projected to rise from 1.1 fWAR to 3.1) is countered by anticipated declines for Trevor Rogers (from 3.3 fWAR to 2.5) and Dean Kremer (from 2.6 fWAR to 1.8), the bulk of projected improvement comes from external sources.
Free agent signings Zach Eflin (expected at 1.8 fWAR) and Andrew Kittredge (0.6 fWAR) were part of the organization last year but are counted as offseason additions. Moreover, Shane Baz is projected at 1.6 fWAR, and closer Ryan Helsley is expected to contribute 1.3 fWAR. In total, these seven players added to the 40-man roster through trades and free agency are projected to deliver 12.9 fWAR.
There’s no doubt that this team would find itself in a much more precarious situation without those additions. Mike Elias, the President of Baseball Operations, deserves commendation for orchestrating these moves.
While this analysis supports my belief that the internal improvement of the Orioles' homegrown talent could yield greater upside for 2026 than any external acquisitions, relying solely on this premise is not a solid strategy for constructing a playoff-caliber team.
Essentially, there is a projected difference of 3.4 fWAR between the returning players and the offseason signings. Any combination of adding a reliable starting pitcher, a depth infielder, and a competent reliever still available on the free agent market could significantly reduce, if not completely eliminate, that disparity.
The missed opportunity of not securing a starting pitcher—especially when facing the prospect of relying on a fifth starter from the ranks of Tyler Wells, Albert Suárez, Brandon Young, or Cade Povich—would be considerable. For this reason, I anticipate that the Orioles will likely finalize a deal soon.
But perhaps the most compelling reason is this: This team has the capacity to improve dramatically compared to last year's performance.
Failing to capitalize on this potential growth by neglecting to acquire another pitcher would feel like a regrettable oversight.
