Will Internal Struggles Lead Umno to Align with Perikatan? Analysts Say Not So Fast.
The recent state elections dealt a significant blow to Umno, leaving many wondering if internal pressures could drive them into an alliance with Perikatan. But analysts are quick to dismiss this possibility, citing complex political dynamics.
A Troubled Alliance?
Amidst growing tensions within Barisan Nasional (BN) over its collaboration with Pakatan Harapan (PH) and increased grassroots pressure from MIC, a potential electoral pact between Umno and Perikatan Nasional (PN) seems improbable for the upcoming general election.
Political analyst Syaza Shukri from the International Islamic University Malaysia predicts a scenario akin to the 2022 general election, where coalitions compete independently but remain open to post-election negotiations.
A Repeat of History?
"The next general election will likely mirror 2022, with BN contesting solo but coordinating to avoid multi-cornered fights," Syaza revealed to Malay Mail. However, she suggests that Umno might lean towards PN only if the latter emerges as the largest bloc, surpassing PH, in the post-election landscape.
A PAS-Dominated Coalition?
Syaza warns that a coalition between Umno and Bersatu would likely be overshadowed by PAS, which could become the dominant force. "PAS would be the biggest party, holding significant influence," she said, recalling a similar arrangement after the 2020 Sheraton Move, when Umno and PN briefly governed together.
Challenges of Coalition Building
Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, expresses skepticism, arguing that the failure of BN and PN to collaborate in the last election highlights the challenges of any future alliance. He attributes this to their competition for the same Malay voter base.
Unlikely Partners, Uncomfortable Alliances
Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, agrees that a BN-PN alignment is unlikely, given Umno's discomfort with Bersatu's origins as a breakaway party. He also highlights Umno's advantage in attracting non-Malay voters, a limitation faced by both PAS and Bersatu.
Internal Struggles and External Pressures
Recent events, such as MIC's discussions of leaving BN and Umno's strained relationship with DAP, further complicate matters. However, analysts emphasize that dissatisfaction alone may not push Umno into PN's arms. Syaza concludes, "While BN may yearn for past independence, it's a political calculation to reach Putrajaya, and Umno's choice will depend on the circumstances."
