As we approach the midpoint of the NBA season, it’s time to separate the hype from the reality and dive into the narratives that have dominated recent weeks. But here’s where it gets controversial: Are the stories we’re telling ourselves about certain teams and players truly grounded in fact, or are we overreacting to fleeting moments? Let’s break it down.
The season began with a sense of predictability: The Oklahoma City Thunder seemed unstoppable, the New York Knicks were dominating the East, and Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets was once again in the MVP conversation. And this is the part most people miss: While these storylines could still play out, the path to their fulfillment is far more unpredictable than anyone anticipated. With the season’s twists and turns, this column aims to help you discern between sustainable trends and temporary hot streaks. Welcome to Is This Cap or No Cap?
This week, we’re tackling recent streaks and the highly anticipated return of a potential MVP candidate.
Joel Embiid’s Comeback: A New Gear or Temporary Spark?
Earlier this season, it felt like a changing of the guard in Philadelphia. Tyrese Maxey was putting up MVP-caliber numbers, and rookie VJ Edgecombe looked poised to become part of the league’s best backcourt. Meanwhile, Joel Embiid—and his massive contract—felt like a burden. He appeared unhealthy, lacked explosiveness, and slowed the offense. In the team’s first 23 games, he played just nine, averaging only 25 minutes with career lows in points (18.2), field-goal percentage (40.7), 3-point percentage (21.4), and rebounds (5.6).
However, after a disastrous 4-for-21 performance against the Lakers on December 7, Embiid flipped a switch. In his next game, a 10-point win over the Pacers, he dropped a season-high 39 points in 32 minutes. Since then, he’s averaged 29 points, eight rebounds, and four assists, leading the 76ers to three wins in their last four games with Maxey and Paul George in the lineup. But here’s the controversial part: Is this resurgence sustainable, or are we overreacting to a small sample size?
Verdict: Cap
While the Eastern Conference is wide open, I’m skeptical it’s open enough for Embiid to lead the 76ers to a deep playoff run. His health has been too inconsistent to assume these past seven games are a sign of things to come. Let’s not forget the larger sample size of his injury struggles.
Boston Celtics: Legitimate Contenders or Overhyped?
After Jayson Tatum’s Achilles injury last May and the Celtics’ roster overhaul, many wrote this season off as a gap year. Yet, here they are, near the top of the East. They rank second in 3-pointers made per game, second in offensive rating, and third in net rating, with multiple 140-point games under their belt. Much of this success is due to Jaylen Brown’s breakout season, highlighted by his historic 50-point performance against the Clippers, where he also locked down Kawhi Leonard. But here’s where it gets controversial: Can Brown truly carry the Celtics to the Finals, or are we overestimating his impact?
Verdict: No Cap
While I don’t think Brown alone is enough—his current shooting percentages are unsustainable, and the Celtics’ rebounding could be a playoff liability—the real game-changer is Tatum. If he returns to form, the Celtics become legitimate contenders. Even with the Knicks and Pistons leading the conference, Tatum’s miraculous return could shift the entire landscape.
The 65-Game Rule: Fair or Outdated?
Last week, the NBA world held its breath when Nikola Jokic suffered a knee injury. Fresh off a historic 56-point, 16-rebound, 15-assist performance against the Timberwolves, Jokic was solidifying another MVP-caliber season. While the injury isn’t season-ending, it will sideline him for at least a month, putting him at risk of falling short of the NBA’s 65-game threshold for award eligibility. And this is the part most people miss: Should a player of Jokic’s caliber be disqualified from MVP consideration simply because of an arbitrary rule?
Verdict: No Cap
The 65-game rule is outdated and nonsensical. If Jokic finishes the season as the leader in rebounds and assists while playing fewer than 65 games, he could still be the most valuable player. Voters are capable of recognizing impact beyond game count. This rule should have been reevaluated last year when Victor Wembanyama was disqualified despite leading the league in blocks. It’s time to abolish it and trust voters to make informed decisions.
The Thunder’s Collapse: Curse or Overreaction?
A few weeks ago, I declared the Thunder a “lock” for greatness on SportsCenter. They were 24-1, en route to the NBA Cup championship, and poised for a historic season. Fast forward to now, and they’re barely above .500, losing to the Spurs three times in a row, the Timberwolves, the Suns, and even the lowly Hornets at home. But here’s the controversial part: Are they truly cursed, or are we overreacting to a temporary slump?
Verdict: Cap!
While their shot at a historically great season may be gone, I refuse to take responsibility for their downfall. The Thunder’s struggles are a reminder that even the most dominant teams can falter. But does this mean they’re cursed, or simply human?
Final Thoughts
As we navigate the second half of the season, these narratives will continue to evolve. Here’s my question to you: Which of these overreactions do you think is most off-base? Are the Celtics truly contenders without Tatum? Should the 65-game rule be abolished? And is the Thunder’s collapse a curse or just a bump in the road? Let’s debate in the comments!
